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FPL Prophet
⚡ Updates Daily: 02:30 & 08:30 UTC
Last Update: 2026-04-12 08:38 UTC
Target: GW33

🔮 Top Predicted Players (Avg Next 3 GWs)

Player ↕ Team ↕ Pos ↕ Matchup Cost ↕ Predicted Pts ↕
Showing top 50 (Use scroll or filters)

📊 Stats Model Accuracy (MAE) - Player Level

Historical performance.

GW All Top 100
GW 6 1.26 2.7
GW 7 1.3 2.72
GW 8 1.28 2.78
GW 9 1.28 2.81
GW 10 1.19 2.35
GW 11 1.28 2.51
GW 12 1.28 2.75
GW 13 1.27 2.59
GW 14 1.33 2.9
GW 15 1.28 2.79
GW 16 1.26 2.59
GW 17 1.31 2.79
GW 18 1.24 2.56
GW 19 1.34 2.54
GW 20 1.22 2.46
GW 21 1.16 2.33
GW 22 1.29 2.55
GW 23 1.29 2.49
GW 24 1.24 2.42
GW 25 1.24 2.52
GW 26 1.29 2.36
GW 27 1.21 2.37
GW 28 1.26 2.38
GW 29 1.28 2.79
GW 30 1.31 2.55
GW 31 1.3 2.35

📉 Optimal Team Performance (Predicted vs Actual)

How the "Optimal XI" composed solely of this statistical model's predictions would have performed.

Window Avg Predicted (Per GW) Avg Actual (Per GW) Est. GW Rank (Avg) Delta Optimal Squad (Simulated) Optimal Squad (Simulated)
GW 6-8 58.7 66.0 3.0M +7.3
Dúbravka -0.4 Gabriel +6.1 J.Timber +1.1 Virgil -2.7 Romero -4.2 Semenyo +3.9 Caicedo -1.3 Doku -0.6 Kudus +0.5 Xhaka +0.2 Haaland +4.9
GW 7-9 58.1 61.7 3.9M +3.6
Raya +1.7 Gabriel +4.7 J.Timber +2.6 Senesi -1.8 Rúben +1.4 Semenyo +2.1 Caicedo -0.5 Xhaka -2.3 João Pedro -2.4 Haaland -0.5 Bowen -1.5
GW 8-10 59.6 71.7 2.4M +12.0
Lammens -2.9 Gabriel +5.0 J.Timber +0.7 James +3.6 Rice +2.8 Semenyo -3.0 Szoboszlai +0.6 Xhaka +0.4 Mateta +4.3 Haaland +1.9 Woltemade -1.5
GW 9-11 63.8 49.3 6.2M -14.5
Raya -0.4 Gabriel +0.2 Cucurella -0.4 James -2.5 Rice +1.4 Semenyo -3.6 Ndiaye -0.3 Mateta -2.0 Haaland -2.4 Bowen -2.1 Woltemade -2.4
GW 10-12 63.0 48.3 5.8M -14.6
Lammens -2.4 Gabriel -3.3 James -1.8 Rúben +0.3 Saka +0.1 Rice +0.3 Semenyo -4.3 B.Fernandes -1.6 Thiago +1.6 Mateta -2.1 Haaland -1.4
GW 11-13 59.5 53.3 2.5M -6.2
Pickford +2.0 Gabriel -5.8 Virgil -1.1 Rúben -0.4 Saka +1.2 Rice -2.0 Rogers +1.7 B.Fernandes +0.7 Thiago +4.4 Haaland -5.2 Bowen -1.9
GW 12-14 57.3 46.0 5.5M -11.3
Pickford +1.9 J.Timber -2.0 Virgil -0.5 Rúben -2.2 Saka -0.8 Rice -1.2 M.Salah -4.2 Szoboszlai -2.5 B.Fernandes +0.5 Thiago +0.3 Haaland -0.6
GW 13-15 56.5 68.7 1.8M +12.2
Pickford +0.1 Virgil -0.6 Rúben +0.4 Milenković -2.4 Rice -0.4 Merino +2.9 Mbeumo -1.1 Foden +9.9 B.Fernandes +6.0 Thiago -0.7 Haaland -1.9
GW 14-16 57.8 66.7 3.3M +8.9
Dúbravka -2.3 Virgil -0.4 O'Reilly -0.3 Milenković -0.1 Saka +1.5 Rice -1.4 Merino -0.3 Foden +8.6 B.Fernandes +5.2 Thiago -3.4 Haaland +1.9
GW 15-17 59.7 58.7 6.2M -1.1
Pickford -0.6 Andersen -1.1 O'Reilly +1.3 Milenković -1.3 Saka +0.5 Merino -3.7 Foden +2.4 B.Fernandes +2.4 Amad -0.4 Thiago -2.7 Haaland +2.1
GW 16-18 62.1 68.3 3.2M +6.2
Sánchez -0.3 Andersen +0.2 Virgil -1.3 Hincapie +0.4 Saka +1.1 Semenyo +3.2 Foden -0.4 B.Fernandes -4.8 Cunha +1.4 Haaland +2.3 Ekitiké +4.3
GW 17-19 59.9 48.3 6.5M -11.6
Sánchez -1.7 Tarkowski +2.0 Virgil -1.3 Rúben -0.1 Saka +0.4 Rogers +0.9 Foden -3.3 B.Fernandes -7.1 Cunha -0.8 Haaland -0.9 Ekitiké +0.3
GW 18-20 58.9 52.7 3.4M -6.2
Sánchez -4.1 Tarkowski +1.6 Rúben -0.1 Dalot +1.0 Saka +0.5 Rogers -2.8 Schade +4.7 Cherki +2.1 Cunha -2.0 Gordon -2.0 Haaland -5.2
GW 19-21 59.8 43.0 6.4M -16.8
Pickford -1.1 Lacroix -0.2 Tarkowski -0.0 Dalot -3.1 Semenyo -1.6 Schade -0.4 Cherki -2.4 Cunha -1.6 Gordon -2.3 Watkins -1.0 Haaland -3.0
GW 20-22 59.6 45.7 5.5M -14.0
Pickford -0.5 Lacroix -1.5 Guéhi -1.5 Tarkowski 0.0 Zubimendi -1.5 Semenyo -2.3 Cunha -0.6 Bruno G. +1.9 Watkins -2.8 Haaland -3.0 Bowen -2.3
GW 21-23 57.2 48.3 5.0M -8.8
Pickford +0.3 Gabriel +0.7 Lacroix -2.2 Tarkowski +0.4 Semenyo -0.1 Foden -3.5 Bruno G. -1.2 Watkins -1.4 Thiago +0.5 Haaland -3.2 Bowen +0.8
GW 22-24 51.9 52.0 4.6M +0.1
Kelleher -0.4 Lacroix -3.6 Tarkowski +0.3 Dorgu +3.1 Semenyo +0.8 Wirtz +3.3 Bruno G. -3.7 Watkins -1.2 Haaland -2.8 Bowen +3.1 Brobbey +1.2
GW 23-25 50.5 54.0 5.8M +3.5
Roefs -2.1 Gabriel +0.3 Senesi 0.0 Tarkowski -2.1 Rice -1.5 Semenyo +0.9 Enzo +1.4 B.Fernandes +3.9 Haaland +1.1 Bowen +2.5 Brobbey -1.0
GW 24-26 53.1 49.5 7.2M -3.6
Roefs -1.5 Gabriel -0.4 Tarkowski -2.8 Netz -4.5 Rice +0.6 Rogers -0.2 Semenyo +2.8 B.Fernandes +2.1 Anderson +0.6 Bowen +0.4 Gyökeres -0.6
GW 25-27 55.2 60.0 4.4M +4.8
Roefs -2.6 Gabriel -1.6 Chalobah -1.5 Lacroix +0.2 Rice +0.5 Rogers -0.5 Semenyo +1.6 Palmer +6.6 B.Fernandes -0.7 João Pedro +2.7 Gyökeres +0.1
GW 26-28 55.0 61.8 3.6M +6.8
Henderson +1.9 Gabriel -0.8 Senesi -0.7 Virgil +7.2 Rice +0.8 Rogers -3.1 Semenyo +3.4 Palmer +0.2 João Pedro +1.1 Haaland -1.6 Gyökeres -1.6
GW 27-29 52.8 64.3 2.9M +11.5
Henderson +2.3 Gabriel +2.6 Tarkowski +1.8 Virgil +1.2 Rogers -2.8 Semenyo +1.5 Palmer -0.9 B.Fernandes +3.3 João Pedro +4.4 Haaland -2.5 Bowen +0.6
GW 28-30 52.8 58.3 4.0M +5.5
Henderson -2.4 Gabriel +4.6 Senesi +3.9 Virgil -1.8 Saka -0.0 Semenyo +1.1 M.Salah -0.8 João Pedro +2.7 Haaland -3.8 Bowen +1.0 Ekitiké +1.0
GW 29-31 57.5 47.3 5.6M -10.2
Donnarumma -3.3 Gabriel +4.3 Guéhi -3.0 Virgil -3.0 Eze -2.1 B.Fernandes +3.8 Thiago -1.2 João Pedro +1.3 Haaland -3.0 Bowen -0.8 Ekitiké -3.4

Understanding xPoints (Expected Points)

What is xPoints? Unlike traditional "form", xPoints is a predictive metric that calculates the probability of a player scoring points based on thousands of historical data points.

We train our models on 5 seasons of data, looking at:

  • Underlying Stats: xG (Expected Goals), xA (Expected Assists), Touches in Box.
  • Fixture Difficulty: Defensive strength of the opposition.
  • Team Form: How many goals the player's team is expected to score.

Why the "Audit" Table?

Transparency is key. The "Top 100 MAE" table shows our Mean Absolute Error for the top 100 most popular players. A lower MAE means our predictions were closer to reality.

We display our "Optimal Squad" history to prove that following the model's advice yields long-term success, even if individual gameweeks have variance.