FPL Prophet
How to Master FPL Prophet
A simple, illustrated manual explaining every feature, metric, and button on the site so you can dominate your mini-leagues.
📑 Quick Jump Links
⚡ Quick Start (In 60 Seconds)
If you just want to set your team before the upcoming deadline, follow this simple 3-step routine:
Import Your Team
Go to Transfer Strategizer. Enter your FPL Team ID (or paste the full URL from your browser's points page, e.g. fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/123456/event/1). Your 15 players, bank balance, and free transfers load automatically.
Run Optimization
Click Plan 1-GW Strategy to find the single best move for the immediate deadline, or Plan 3-GW Strategy to simulate a multi-week transfer roadmap with rolling free transfers.
Review & Execute
Browse Option 1 (the optimal move) through Option 5 (alternative combos). Check the projected points gain, captaincy recommendations, and execute your transfer on the official FPL app.
🧠 Prediction Engine & Expected Points (xP)
How our Artificial Intelligence calculates player points and why it outperforms basic form averages.
🔍 What is "Expected Points" (xP)?
In FPL, a single deflected goal can give a player 8 points even if they played poorly. Our models look beneath the surface at underlying chance quality ($xG, xA, xGI$), defensive solidity, and granular opposition strength:
- Unlucky Players Rewarded: A striker who generated 1.5 $xG$ but hit the post twice will be projected for high points next week.
- Flukes Penalized: A midfielder scoring from a 0.02 $xG$ miracle shot is recognized as unsustainable.
- Efficiency Penalty: Wildly inconsistent players who haul once every six weeks are penalized in favor of steady weekly grinders.
📅 In-Season Form Weighting Ramp
To prevent wild overreactions in early gameweeks, actual performance blends into established baseline priors over time:
🔄 Transfer Strategizer (`/transfers`)
Your interactive transfer control room. Tailor constraints, lock your favorite players, and explore alternative strategic paths.
🔒 Squad Preference Locks: Keep (🟢) and Sell (🔴)
When you load your squad, every player card features two interactive checkboxes that give you complete tactical control over the solver:
Check Keep for players you refuse to sell (e.g. Haaland or Salah). The optimization algorithm is forbidden from transferring this player out.
Check Sell for an injured star or underperforming player you want gone immediately. The algorithm will prioritize replacing them with the highest-gain alternative.
🎟️ Rolling Free Transfers (0 Moves)
Unlike other tools that force a transfer every week, FPL Prophet understands the immense mathematical value of saving / rolling a free transfer. If holding your transfer yields higher expected points over subsequent weeks, the solver will advise 0 Moves (Roll FT).
🗺️ 3-GW Pathway Dynamic Pitch
When you run Plan 3-GW Strategy, a multi-week roadmap table is generated. Click any row (GW1, GW2, or GW3) in the roadmap table to instantly transform the pitch display and inspect your projected lineup for that future week.
🟢 Pitch Card Anatomy & Risk Dots
Every player card rendered on the pitch contains crucial visual cues. Here is the complete visual breakdown:
(H) for Home or (A) for Away.Nailed starter expected to play 80–90 minutes with 100% fitness clearance.
Minor injury flag (75% chance), rotation pairing, or fitness doubt.
Severe injury (0–50% chance), red card suspension, or non-playing backup (scaled to 0.1 pts).
📊 Player Predictions & Market Explorer (`/performance`)
Scout the entire Premier League database with multi-gameweek forecasting and instant search filters.
🎯 Target Horizon Selector: When to Use Which?
Click the target buttons at the top of the predictions table to switch timeframes depending on your goal:
🛠️ Free Hit & Squad Builder (`/optimize`)
Build a mathematically optimal 15-player squad from scratch under the £100.0m salary cap, or force-include and exclude any players you want.
⚙️ Custom Preference Controls: Force Include & Force Exclude
Want to build an optimal squad around your favorite talisman or avoid players from a team you dislike? Use the custom inclusion and exclusion inputs:
🟢 Force Include (Must Be In Squad)
Search any player to lock them into your 15-man squad. The solver will build the highest-scoring team around them within budget.
🔴 Force Exclude (Cannot Be In Squad)
Search any player to blacklist them completely. The solver will find the best alternative combinations without considering them.
🗂️ 5 Unique Squad Variations Generated
Every optimization run generates 5 tactical lineups to match your playing style:
🏟️ The Dugout & News Intel (`/the-dugout`)
Your intelligence hub for weekly press conference news, injury radars, and differential mini-league advantages.
📰 Press Conference Quotes & Warnings
Aggregates official manager press conference quotes, injury timelines, and suspension alerts updated continuously ahead of every deadline.
💎 Differential Radar (<10% Ownership)
Highlights high-xP players owned by fewer than 10% of overall FPL managers, helping you leapfrog rivals in mini-leagues.